About ElNinoLive

ElNinoLive is an independent data-journalism project built around a single story: the 2026–27 El Niño. It pairs live ocean and atmosphere data from NOAA and NASA with plain-language analysis, so a farmer, a journalist, a risk manager, or a curious reader can see what the tropical Pacific is doing — and what it might mean for them.

The story is live and moving. La Niña faded in early 2026, sea surface temperatures crossed the El Niño threshold in May, and NOAA issued an official El Niño Advisory in June. The June outlook put the odds of at least a strong event near 88 percent and the odds of a very strong one around 63 percent. An event with that potential deserves careful, continuous coverage — not a burst of headlines after something floods.

That is the gap this site exists to fill.

Who runs ElNinoLive

ElNinoLive is built and edited by Iaroslav Vladymyr, founder and editor — an independent developer, not a meteorologist and not a newsroom. There is no staff behind the site. When a page says "we", it means the publication, not a team.

How the work is split between software and a person

Collecting the data is automated: the site pulls NOAA's and other agencies' indicator files on a schedule, and automated checks compare the headline numbers the site shows against the agencies' own files and flag pages or charts that break. Editorial decisions are made by a person — what to cover, how to frame an outlook, which sources count, when a claim needs a correction, and what a page is allowed to say about a winter that has not happened yet.

What the site publishes

The live dashboard is the heart of the project: current Niño 3.4 and Southern Oscillation Index readings, the 2026 trajectory charted against the landmark events of 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16, and the latest official probabilities.

Around it sits a library of explainers, regional impact guides, commodity analyses, and event histories, plus monthly forecast analysis that translates each official outlook into plain English. A weekly email, The El Niño Briefing, condenses the week into five minutes.

Editorial standards

Three commitments apply to every page. Accuracy over alarm: being right matters more than being viral, and the site avoids catastrophe language the data does not support. Probabilistic framing: El Niño shifts odds rather than scripting outcomes, so pages speak in probabilities and historical tendencies, never in certainties. Sources on every page: each article lists the primary sources behind it, and every number traces back to an official dataset or a published, citable study.

Where the data comes from

Nearly everything on the dashboard originates with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center — the weekly ENSO update, the monthly probabilistic outlooks, and the Oceanic Niño Index — supplemented by NASA satellite observations of the tropical Pacific. The data and methodology page documents every series the site uses, how often it refreshes, and how it is processed. If a chart here ever differs from an agency chart, that page explains why, usually a smoothing or baseline choice.

How often it updates

The dashboard refreshes daily as new data lands. Forecast analysis publishes monthly, timed to the official ENSO outlooks around mid-month. Explainers and impact guides are reviewed as the event evolves, and every page carries the date it was last updated.

Corrections

Errors are fixed visibly. When something is wrong, the page is corrected, the change is noted, and the update is dated — no silent edits on matters of substance. If you spot a problem, email hello@elninolive.com or use the channels on the contact page.

Independence and funding

ElNinoLive is reader-supported and independent. The project runs on advertising, affiliate links that are always disclosed where they appear, and sponsorships of the dashboard and newsletter — details on the contact page. Sponsors receive labeled placement, never influence over analysis. The site does not sell forecasts, and no data provider pays for coverage.

Readers can also chip in directly. That is a voluntary one-off contribution and nothing more: it buys no perks, no early access and no private tier, and every page stays free whether or not anyone gives. It goes toward the data pipeline and hosting that keep the dashboard live.

Bottom line

• ElNinoLive tracks the 2026–27 El Niño with live NOAA and NASA data and plain-language analysis.
• It is built and edited by one person, Iaroslav Vladymyr; data collection and checks are automated, editorial decisions are not.
• The dashboard updates daily; forecast analysis follows each monthly official outlook.
• Pages frame the future as probabilities, cite sources, and correct errors visibly.