The economic ripple effects
El Niño's weather shifts show up months later in harvests, commodity prices, insurance losses and inflation. Sector-by-sector guides to what history says and what the 2026–27 event could mean.
Agriculture
El Niño and Agriculture: The Global Map of Winners and Losers
One climate pattern, opposite harvests: the crop-by-crop, hemisphere-by-hemisphere guide to farming through 2026–27.
Cocoa
El Niño and Cocoa Prices: A Concentrated Market Meets a Dry Signal
When two countries grow most of a crop, one climate pattern can move the whole market — and cocoa's main harvest overlaps El Niño's peak.
Coffee
El Niño and Coffee Prices: Vietnam's Dry Season Is the One to Watch
Espresso economics meet Pacific physics: the world's robusta belt sits squarely in El Niño's dry zone, with the 2027 crop on the line.
Global Economy
El Niño and the Global Economy: Growth, Inflation and the 2026–27 Bill
The macro bill for a super El Niño: commodity-exporter growth dents, food-price inflation, shipping snarls — unevenly distributed, as always.
Insurance & Risk
El Niño for Insurers and Risk Managers: The Peril Map Just Moved
Fewer hurricanes, more floods, drier fire seasons: a strong El Niño re-prices the world's peril map — and 2026–27 renewals sit right on it.
Rice & Sugar
El Niño, Rice and Sugar: Asia's Staples Under a Drying Sky
The staple that feeds half of humanity is grown almost entirely inside El Niño's dry zone — and policy, not just weather, sets the price.