The economic ripple effects
El Niño's weather shifts show up months later in harvests, commodity prices, insurance losses and inflation. Sector-by-sector guides to what history says and what the 2026–27 event could mean.
Agriculture
El Niño and Agriculture: The Global Map of Winners and Losers
One climate pattern, opposite harvests: the crop-by-crop, hemisphere-by-hemisphere guide to farming through 2026–27.
Cocoa
El Niño and Cocoa Prices: A Concentrated Market Meets a Dry Signal
When two countries grow most of a crop, one climate pattern can move the whole market — and cocoa's main harvest overlaps El Niño's peak.
Coffee
El Niño and Coffee Prices: Vietnam's Dry Season Is the One to Watch
Espresso economics meet Pacific physics: the world's robusta belt sits squarely in El Niño's dry zone, with the 2027 crop on the line.
Coral reefs
El Niño and Coral Reefs: Marine Heat, Bleaching and NOAA's Current Alerts
All four global coral bleaching events on record overlapped an El Niño. What the heat does to reefs, and NOAA's alert levels from its latest daily data.
Global Economy
El Niño and the Global Economy: Growth, Inflation and the 2026–27 Bill
The macro bill for a super El Niño: commodity-exporter growth dents, food-price inflation, shipping snarls — unevenly distributed, as always.
Insurance & Risk
El Niño for Insurers and Risk Managers: The Peril Map Just Moved
Fewer hurricanes, more floods, drier fire seasons: a strong El Niño re-prices the world's peril map — and 2026–27 renewals sit right on it.
Rice & Sugar
El Niño, Rice and Sugar: Asia's Staples Under a Drying Sky
The staple that feeds half of humanity is grown almost entirely inside El Niño's dry zone — and policy, not just weather, sets the price.