El Niño impacts around the world
A strong El Niño rearranges rainfall and temperature on every continent — some regions flood while others burn. Pick a region on the map or browse the guides below for the historical record and the 2026–27 outlook.
Argentina
One of the few countries where El Niño is usually good news — until the rain arrives at harvest.
Atlantic Basin
The one El Niño impact that arrives before winter: shear-suppressed Atlantic activity — with the 'it only takes one' asterisk written in 1992.
Australia
Dry east, primed fuels, a wheat belt on edge — Australia faces the sharpest downside of a strong El Niño winter and spring.
Brazil
One country, two opposite signals: drought in the north and northeast, flooding rain in the south. Coffee sits on the wrong side of it.
California
California's wettest winters cluster in strong El Niño years — and 2026–27 is forecast to be one of them.
Colombia
Dry season deepens, reservoirs fall, and the world's biggest washed-arabica crop takes the strain.
East Africa
The October–December short rains arrive loaded: flood and outbreak risk for a region still recovering from its longest drought in decades.
Europe
The teleconnection is faint and fickle — but the coffee in your cup and the reinsurance on your books are exposed all the same.
US Gulf Coast & Southeast
The subtropical jet parks overhead: more rain, cooler days, and the one El Niño hazard the Southeast underestimates — winter tornadoes.
India
A billion-person economy runs on four months of rain — and El Niño historically loads those months toward deficit. With famous exceptions.
Indonesia
The archipelago sits under El Niño's departing rains — drought, peat fires and regional haze are the historical price of a strong event.
US Northeast & Midwest
The mildest-leaning region of the El Niño map — and the one where a single storm can rewrite the season's story in a weekend.
US Pacific Northwest
The storm track goes south, the mountains stay warm, and the snowpack pays for it — with consequences that last into next summer's rivers.
Philippines
Dry dams, water rationing and a rice crop under pressure — but fewer typhoons making landfall. The Philippine El Niño is a trade, not a straight loss.
South Africa
The clearest El Niño drought signal in the southern hemisphere, aimed straight at the maize belt.
Peru & South America
The place that named El Niño still takes its hardest punch: coastal floods, a collapsing fishery — and a wetter windfall far to the south.
Southeast Asia
From the Mekong Delta's salt lines to Manila's water taps, a strong El Niño squeezes the region that feeds the world its rice.
United States
El Niño loads the dice for a wet, stormy South and a milder North — and 2026–27 is forecast to be a strong to very strong event.
Vietnam
Drought in the Central Highlands hits the world's robusta supply; salt pushes up the Mekong Delta behind it.