El Niño forecast updates
One analysis after each official monthly outlook: how the odds moved, what the models converged on, and what to watch next. The current numbers always live on the dashboard.
June 12, 2026
NOAA Declares El Niño — and the Odds of a Very Strong Event Rise
The Advisory is official: ~100% odds El Niño lasts through winter, 88% at least strong, 63% very strong. How June 2026 compares to 1997 and 2015.
May 14, 2026
El Niño Has Arrived: The Pacific Crosses the Threshold
Weekly readings have crossed the +0.5°C line for the first time since the La Niña ended. Here's what must happen before an official declaration.