The El Niño Briefing #12: +3.3 °C again, and Niño 3 sets a new high
Updated: October 23, 2026 · 2 min read · Live dashboard
NOAA's weekly Niño 3.4 read +3.3 °C for the week centred 14 October. Same as the week before, so the record holds rather than grows. The file goes back to September 1981, 2,355 weeks, and no week outside this year got above +3.0 °C.
Further east, a new high. Niño 3 rose to +4.2 °C, from +4.1 °C. Its best week outside this year was +3.3 °C, in November 1997. Off Peru and Ecuador, Niño 1+2 held at +5.2 °C, still above the +4.5 °C of late June 1983. Niño 4, the western box, eased to +1.1 °C from +1.3 °C.
The Bureau eased a little. The Bureau of Meteorology's relative Niño 3.4, which takes out the warming of the tropical oceans as a whole, read +2.78 °C for the week ending 18 October. That's just below its record of +2.81 °C, which it held for the two weeks before.
The same week in 1997 and 2015. Niño 3.4 read +2.1 °C in the week centred 15 October 1997 and +2.2 °C in the week centred 14 October 2015. Those events went on to peak at +2.3 °C (December 1997) and +3.0 °C (November 2015).
No new odds this week. CPC's 8 October discussion still stands: an 83% chance that October–December is stronger than any El Niño since 1950. The seasonal numbers haven't moved either: RONI +1.69 and ONI +2.16 °C for July–September. August–October arrives with CPC's November update.
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Next. NOAA's weekly file updates on Monday 26 October with the week centred 21 October. CPC's next discussion is due on 12 November.
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— The El Niño Briefing