Current El Niño status
Data as of November 8, 2026 · page built November 11, 2026
As of November 11, 2026: El Niño is under way in the tropical Pacific. NOAA's weekly Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is +3.3 °C for the week centred November 4, 2026, in the very strong range of the usual thresholds, about level with four weeks earlier. The latest Oceanic Niño Index is +2.46 °C for Aug–Oct 2026; the relative index (RONI) is +2.00 °C. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center status is "El Niño Advisory": "El Niño conditions are present and strengthening" (discussion of October 8, 2026). CPC puts the chance of a strong to very strong El Niño through January–March 2027 at over 83%, and of the strongest El Niño since 1950 in October–December 2026 at 83%.
Every index, with its period and source
| Index | Value | Period | Source file |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niño 3.4, weekly SST anomaly | +3.3 °C | week centred November 4, 2026 | NOAA Climate Prediction Center |
| Niño 3, weekly SST anomaly | +4.4 °C | week centred November 4, 2026 | NOAA Climate Prediction Center |
| Niño 1+2, weekly SST anomaly (off Peru and Ecuador) | +5.6 °C | week centred November 4, 2026 | NOAA Climate Prediction Center |
| Niño 4, weekly SST anomaly | +1.5 °C | week centred November 4, 2026 | NOAA Climate Prediction Center |
| Relative Niño 3.4, weekly (Bureau of Meteorology) | +2.75 °C | week ending November 8, 2026 | Australian Bureau of Meteorology |
| Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), 3-month mean | +2.46 °C | Aug–Oct 2026 | NOAA Climate Prediction Center |
| Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), 3-month mean | +2.00 °C | Aug–Oct 2026 | NOAA Climate Prediction Center |
| Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI.v2), two-month seasonA standardised index, not degrees. | +2.53 | Sep–Oct 2026 | NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory |
| Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), monthlyNegative values go with El Niño. | −1.1 | Oct 2026 | NOAA Climate Prediction Center |
| Upper-ocean heat content anomaly, equatorial Pacific 0–300 m (180°–100°W) | +3.32 °C | Oct 2026 | NOAA Climate Prediction Center |
Anomalies are departures from each agency’s own baseline (NOAA weekly: 1991–2020). Weekly values are preliminary and can be revised. A value this site could not read is shown as “no data”, never as zero.
NOAA CPC outlook
Status: El Niño Advisory — El Niño conditions are present and strengthening. From the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of October 8, 2026.
- over 83% — Strong to very strong El Niño through January–March 2027 (CPC, October 8, 2026)
- over 90% — Very strong El Niño (CPC, September 10, 2026; not restated in the latest discussion)
- 83% — Strongest since 1950 (+2.5 °C or more on the 3-month RONI) in October–December 2026 (CPC, October 8, 2026)
- 97% — El Niño persists through early spring 2027 (CPC, July 9, 2026; not restated in the latest discussion)
| Season | El Niño | Neutral | La Niña |
|---|---|---|---|
| SON 2026 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
| OND 2026 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
| NDJ 2026-27 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
| DJF 2026-27 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
| JFM 2027 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
| FMA 2027 | 98 | 2 | 0 |
| MAM 2027 | 85 | 15 | 0 |
| AMJ 2027 | 45 | 54 | 1 |
| MJJ 2027 | 17 | 70 | 13 |
How to cite
ElNinoLive (elninolive.com), "Current El Niño status", retrieved November 11, 2026. Underlying data: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
The index values are public data of NOAA and the Bureau of Meteorology. The summary text and this compilation may be quoted and reused with attribution to ElNinoLive.com and a link.
The same data as JSON: /api/status.json (open CORS, refreshed hourly). Sources and method: Data & methodology. Site description for assistants: /llms.txt.