The El Niño Briefing — the archive
One issue a week while the event runs: the index moves that mattered, what changed in the forecasts, and one impact explained. This page carries every issue in full — the email just arrives first.
Week to August 28, 2026
The headline number stalled. The one that matters didn't
Weekly Niño 3.4 went flat at +2.6°C while RONI doubled from +0.5 to +1.0 in one season. Why the gap between the two numbers is the week's real story.
Week to August 21, 2026
Four boxes, one verdict: this is the classic, east-loaded El Niño
Niño 1+2 at +4.0°C while Niño 4 stands still: six weeks of readings have declared which kind of El Niño 2026–27 is — and where its effects will land.
Week to August 14, 2026
The ocean said +2.6°C weeks ago. The atmosphere just voted
MEI.v2 for June–July reads +2.41 — higher than 1997, 2015 or 1982 at the same point. What a record coupling index says about the October–December peak.
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