El Niño in Nashville, TN
In none of the 3 past super El Niño winters, Nashville was wetter than normal. It was warmer than normal in all 3.
The wettest of them was 1982–83: 11.86 inches, 90% of normal — 36th driest of 78.
History from three winters, not a forecast. Measured at one NOAA station, Nashville; record since Dec–Feb 1948–49.
December–February in the three super El Niño winters
| Winter | Precipitation | Average temperature |
|---|---|---|
| 1982–83Dec 1982–Feb 1983 | 11.86 in−1.28 in vs normal · 90%36th driest of 78 | 43.2 °F+1.2 °F vs normaltied 23rd warmest of 77 |
| 1997–98Dec 1997–Feb 1998 | 10 in−3.14 in vs normal · 76%19th driest of 78 | 44 °F+2.0 °F vs normal16th warmest of 77 |
| 2015–16Dec 2015–Feb 2016 | 11.56 in−1.58 in vs normal · 88%32nd driest of 78 | 45.2 °F+3.2 °F vs normal4th warmest of 77 |
| Normal1991–2020 average | 13.14 in | 42 °F |
Ranks are within this station’s own record: 78 winters for precipitation, 77 for temperature. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance, Nashville precipitation and temperature, as of November 11, 2026.
This winter: where NOAA’s outlook places Nashville
For December–February 2026–27, the Climate Prediction Center’s map places Nashville in equal chances of above-, near- or below-normal precipitation (no tilt either way), and in the 33–40% area for above-normal temperature.
Read from the contours of CPC’s seasonal outlook issued October 15, 2026 — the area the city falls in on a continental-scale map, not a forecast made for the city. CPC seasonal outlook maps. CPC reissues it monthly.
Read next
- What El Niño means for the United States
- Tennessee statewide in the same three winters (against a 1901–2000 normal, so the departures differ from this page)
- Winter 2026–27 outlook
- Current El Niño status
Other cities in the Ohio Valley climate region: Chicago, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Columbus, Indianapolis. All 50 cities