El Niño in Phoenix, AZ
In 2 of 3 past super El Niño winters, Phoenix was wetter than normal. It was warmer than normal in 1 of 3.
The wettest of them was 1997–98: 4.12 inches, 166% of normal — 13th wettest of 88.
History from three winters, not a forecast. Measured at one NOAA station, Phoenix; record since Dec–Feb 1933–34.
December–February in the three super El Niño winters
| Winter | Precipitation | Average temperature |
|---|---|---|
| 1982–83Dec 1982–Feb 1983 | 3.52 in+1.04 in vs normal · 142%19th wettest of 88 | 55.7 °F−2.6 °F vs normal21st coldest of 88 |
| 1997–98Dec 1997–Feb 1998 | 4.12 in+1.64 in vs normal · 166%13th wettest of 88 | 55.8 °F−2.5 °F vs normaltied 22nd coldest of 88 |
| 2015–16Dec 2015–Feb 2016 | 1.52 in−0.96 in vs normal · 61%34th driest of 88 | 58.9 °F+0.6 °F vs normal18th warmest of 88 |
| Normal1991–2020 average | 2.48 in | 58.3 °F |
Ranks are within this station’s own record: 88 winters for precipitation, 88 for temperature (5 incomplete winters are left out). Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance, Phoenix precipitation and temperature, as of November 11, 2026.
This winter: where NOAA’s outlook places Phoenix
For December–February 2026–27, the Climate Prediction Center’s map places Phoenix in the 50–60% area for above-normal precipitation, and in equal chances of above-, near- or below-normal temperature (no tilt either way).
Read from the contours of CPC’s seasonal outlook issued October 15, 2026 — the area the city falls in on a continental-scale map, not a forecast made for the city. CPC seasonal outlook maps. CPC reissues it monthly.
Read next
- What El Niño means for the United States
- Arizona statewide in the same three winters (against a 1901–2000 normal, so the departures differ from this page)
- Winter 2026–27 outlook
- Current El Niño status
Other cities in the Southwest climate region: Denver, Salt Lake City, Tucson. All 50 cities