El Niño in Tucson, AZ
In 2 of 3 past super El Niño winters, Tucson was wetter than normal. It was warmer than normal in 1 of 3.
The wettest of them was 1997–98: 6.25 inches, 233% of normal — 4th wettest of 78.
History from three winters, not a forecast. Measured at one NOAA station, Tucson; record since Dec–Feb 1948–49.
December–February in the three super El Niño winters
| Winter | Precipitation | Average temperature |
|---|---|---|
| 1982–83Dec 1982–Feb 1983 | 4.24 in+1.56 in vs normal · 158%15th wettest of 78 | 52.6 °F−1.6 °F vs normaltied 18th coldest of 78 |
| 1997–98Dec 1997–Feb 1998 | 6.25 in+3.57 in vs normal · 233%4th wettest of 78 | 51.3 °F−2.9 °F vs normal7th coldest of 78 |
| 2015–16Dec 2015–Feb 2016 | 2.18 in−0.50 in vs normal · 81%38th wettest of 78 | 55.1 °F+0.9 °F vs normaltied 21st warmest of 78 |
| Normal1991–2020 average | 2.68 in | 54.2 °F |
Ranks are within this station’s own record: 78 winters for precipitation, 78 for temperature. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance, Tucson precipitation and temperature, as of November 11, 2026.
This winter: where NOAA’s outlook places Tucson
For December–February 2026–27, the Climate Prediction Center’s map places Tucson in the 50–60% area for above-normal precipitation, and in equal chances of above-, near- or below-normal temperature (no tilt either way).
Read from the contours of CPC’s seasonal outlook issued October 15, 2026 — the area the city falls in on a continental-scale map, not a forecast made for the city. CPC seasonal outlook maps. CPC reissues it monthly.
Read next
- What El Niño means for the United States
- Arizona statewide in the same three winters (against a 1901–2000 normal, so the departures differ from this page)
- Winter 2026–27 outlook
- Current El Niño status
Other cities in the Southwest climate region: Phoenix, Denver, Salt Lake City. All 50 cities