El Niño in San Jose, CA
In 2 of 3 past super El Niño winters, San Jose was wetter than normal. It was warmer than normal in 1 of 3.
The wettest of them was 1997–98: 26.45 inches, 205% of normal — 2nd wettest of 131.
History from three winters, not a forecast. Measured at NOAA’s California Climate Division 4 (NOAA has no city series for San Jose; a climate division is an area average, not the city itself); record since Dec–Feb 1895–96.
December–February in the three super El Niño winters
| Winter | Precipitation | Average temperature |
|---|---|---|
| 1982–83Dec 1982–Feb 1983 | 19.43 in+6.53 in vs normal · 151%16th wettest of 131 | 48.7 °F−0.6 °F vs normaltied 40th warmest of 131 |
| 1997–98Dec 1997–Feb 1998 | 26.45 in+13.55 in vs normal · 205%2nd wettest of 131 | 48.7 °F−0.6 °F vs normaltied 40th warmest of 131 |
| 2015–16Dec 2015–Feb 2016 | 11.26 in−1.64 in vs normal · 87%63rd wettest of 131 | 50.7 °F+1.4 °F vs normaltied 9th warmest of 131 |
| Normal1991–2020 average | 12.9 in | 49.3 °F |
Ranks are within this division’s own record: 131 winters for precipitation, 131 for temperature. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance, California, Climate Division 4 precipitation and temperature, as of November 11, 2026.
This winter: where NOAA’s outlook places San Jose
For December–February 2026–27, the Climate Prediction Center’s map places San Jose in the 50–60% area for above-normal precipitation, and in the 33–40% area for above-normal temperature.
Read from the contours of CPC’s seasonal outlook issued October 15, 2026 — the area the city falls in on a continental-scale map, not a forecast made for the city. CPC seasonal outlook maps. CPC reissues it monthly.
Official notices for California
- September 22, 2026California's Insurance Commissioner asked residents to review their cover before the El Niño storm season. The release notes that homeowners, renters and commercial policies typically exclude flood damage, and that flood insurance generally takes effect 30 days after purchase.California Department of Insurance
- September 21, 2026California's governor proclaimed a state of emergency for El Niño preparedness. State agencies are to stage flood-fighting supplies such as sandbags and pumps; Caltrans is to stage road-closure and snow-removal equipment. The release cites NOAA's 75% chance of a historic event.Office of the Governor of California
Read next
- What El Niño means for California
- California statewide in the same three winters (against a 1901–2000 normal, so the departures differ from this page)
- Winter 2026–27 outlook
- Current El Niño status
Other cities in the West climate region: Los Angeles, Riverside–San Bernardino, San Francisco, San Diego, Sacramento, Las Vegas. All 50 cities