El Niño in Tampa, FL
In all 3 past super El Niño winters, Tampa was wetter than normal. It was warmer than normal in 1 of 3.
The wettest of them was 1997–98: 31.04 inches, 402% of normal — the wettest of 87.
History from three winters, not a forecast. Measured at one NOAA station, Tampa; record since Dec–Feb 1939–40.
December–February in the three super El Niño winters
| Winter | Precipitation | Average temperature |
|---|---|---|
| 1982–83Dec 1982–Feb 1983 | 9.9 in+2.17 in vs normal · 128%18th wettest of 87 | 63.7 °F−0.3 °F vs normal31st warmest of 87 |
| 1997–98Dec 1997–Feb 1998 | 31.04 in+23.31 in vs normal · 402%the wettest of 87 | 63.3 °F−0.7 °F vs normaltied 40th warmest of 87 |
| 2015–16Dec 2015–Feb 2016 | 9.22 in+1.49 in vs normal · 119%25th wettest of 87 | 65.9 °F+1.9 °F vs normaltied 15th warmest of 87 |
| Normal1991–2020 average | 7.73 in | 64 °F |
Ranks are within this station’s own record: 87 winters for precipitation, 87 for temperature. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance, Tampa precipitation and temperature, as of November 11, 2026.
This winter: where NOAA’s outlook places Tampa
For December–February 2026–27, the Climate Prediction Center’s map places Tampa in the 70–80% area for above-normal precipitation, and in the 33–40% area for near-normal temperature.
Read from the contours of CPC’s seasonal outlook issued October 15, 2026 — the area the city falls in on a continental-scale map, not a forecast made for the city. CPC seasonal outlook maps. CPC reissues it monthly.
Read next
- What El Niño means for the Gulf Coast and Southeast
- Florida statewide in the same three winters (against a 1901–2000 normal, so the departures differ from this page)
- Winter 2026–27 outlook
- Current El Niño status
Other cities in the Southeast climate region: Miami, Washington, Atlanta, Orlando, Charlotte, Virginia Beach–Norfolk. All 50 cities